Managed Accounts
Latest Presentation
Recorded: January 26, 2012
The Fed left rates on hold and did not announce further quantitative easing, but the FOMC has extended the period over which rates are "likely" to be kept "exceptionally low" to at least late 2014. As this has been “mid-2013”, the Fed is now all-in on their forward rate commitment.
Recorded: December 19, 2011
Bond managers are supposed to play defense in tough times and make sure clients make it through to better days.
Recorded: November 17, 2011
The US economy is improving slowly, but investing is buffeted by global economics and policy uncertainties.
Recorded: October 17, 2011
Second half growth should be better but we’re still in the woods.
Recorded: September 19, 2011
Policy responses are likely, but will they be effective?
Recorded: August 16, 2011
A lot is going on. Rates have fallen, credit spreads are wider, economic data is underwhelming. Unfortunately, depressingly familiar issues are still at the forefront and these continue to force reassessment of the economy’s outlook and the prices of risky assets.
Recorded: July 19, 2011
Stay invested in safe income-producing vehicles.
Recorded: June 20, 2011
With weak job gains, cautious consumer spending and sliding housing prices, removal of Fed accommodation looks increasingly distant.
Recorded: May 25, 2011
Economic growth has softened and so have forecasts for the rest of the year. What does this mean for bondholders?
Recorded: April 18, 2011
Can we listen to inflation hawks at the same time we see US GDP estimates dropping?
Recorded: March 16, 2011
“Investors are rocked by tragic events in Japan, as well as turmoil in the Middle-East and peripheral Europe. Coupled with slow US economic growth, the result is a well supported bond market.”
Recorded: February 18, 2011
The economy struggles through an anemic recovery.
Recorded: December 22, 2010
As rates backed up what is really being challenged is the US’s place as a fiscally responsible country. Maybe we have a year or so to get our long run imbalances in order, or our debt starts to look more like a sovereign risk, rather than a flight to safety trade.
Recorded: November 17, 2010
Since the announcement of round two of quantitative easing, which is designed to raise asset prices, bonds and stocks have moved lower, the opposite of Fed intentions. What is driving this?
Recorded: October 15, 2010
Markets soar on anticipated Fed actions,
but the route to economic recovery remains to be seen.
Recorded: September 03, 2010
Rates stay low for longer; the consensus is right on that. There are really few alternatives to keep the economy growing.
Recorded: July 19, 2010
Bonds still look good and high yield continues to look very attractive.
Recorded: June 03, 2010
Disturbing Developments in the Battle with Deficits,
Deceleration and Deflation
The markets are in de-risking mode and trading is volatile. The crisis in the Eurozone, the drop in leading
indicators globally, tensions in the Middle East and the Korean peninsula all matter. So too do
interventionist policies which can cause their own kind of volatility. The global growth investment theme,
particularly with growth coming from the developing world, looks shakier which is itself shaking out
positions. What we see though is an increase in futures of bank funding rates, as well as some pressures
in corporate and repo markets, showing that all is not clear down the road.
Recorded: May 12, 2010
Too much debt . . .
How do we think about the Fed exit strategy in the midst of anti-stimulative actions and continued deleveraging? Getting out from under too much debt is a widespread problem.
Recorded: April 09, 2010
So much for the story that rates could only go higher.
Recorded: April 01, 2010
Rates have pushed up, but they won't go far for a lot of reasons. Don't mistake a recovery from recession for an expansion.
Recorded: March 19, 2010
"Hold your bonds"
Recorded: February 19, 2010
The Fed has increased the discount rate but, bond markets are amazingly resilient in the face of this largely technical signal. While rates won’t be near zero forever, economic turbulence will require accommodative posture for some time.
Recorded: February 05, 2010
Political winds blow through the markets. Employment progress is slow.
Recorded: January 22, 2010
Conditions remain supportive of bond market valuations.
Recorded: January 08, 2009
Recorded: December 10, 2009
Rick Kilbride provides a review of 2009 and his outlook for 2010.
Recorded: December 02, 2009
What do we make of low front end rates and the steep yield curve?
Recorded: November 25, 2009
Forces that might be expected to raise interest rates have not done so. Particularly, huge supply has
been met with relentless buyers.
Recorded: November 17, 2009
The Fed still sees risks to growth as the market handicaps how much longer accommodative policies will be warranted.
Recorded: November 10, 2009
For the optimists, even if unemployment is near peak, lowering it remains a long term challenge. Slack labor dampens consumer spending and is not a fertile environment for ramping up wages. Inflationary fears could still be misplaced.
Recorded: November 03, 2009
While the economy finally showed some growth, treasuries have fallen into a near-term trading range, as the markets gauge the offsetting irresistible force of supply against the immovable object of lackluster growth and limited immediate inflation prospects. Credit markets are similarly marking time.
Recorded: October 27, 2009
Rates moved higher as we enter a week loaded with Treasury auctions.
Recorded: October 19, 2009
Until we see an improvement from ~10% unemployment, a couple more points of capacity utilization, an increase in the velocity of money, and a stabilization of commercial real estate prices, the Fed is a long way off from raising rates. Banks and the consumer are just not ready for it.
Recorded: October 06, 2009
Creating new jobs will be a daunting test for the private and public sectors for the next few years. The improbability of attaining desirable job growth will not likely be socially acceptable and will generate additional policy responses.
Recorded: September 29, 2009
Rick Kilbride sees many signs of market recovery, but still believes the economic crisis has yet to truly play itself out.
Recorded: September 21, 2009
Rick Kilbride notes that markets continue to rally and sees recent risk taking behaviors as "going a long way to reviving economic activity". He further states that tremendous cash balances are looking for anything better that the risk free return of zero.
Recorded: September 14, 2009
Tune in to hear Rick Kilbride talk about current events and sentiments driving the markets as well as his thoughts around the outlook of the credit and municipal markets going forward.
Recorded: September 09, 2009
Rick Kilbride believes the pace of economic recovery is likely to disappoint; expectations of disinflation make Treasuries an attractive holding for many investors. Corporate bonds will also continue to do well.
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